Good morning. We look at the latest data on the virus, in three charts. |
A tragic finish to the year |
Let’s check in on the latest coronavirus data this morning, with help from three charts. |
The first shows that the situation in Europe has worsened over the past week — but not nearly to the level of the U.S.: |
 | | By The New York Times | Sources: Hospitals and health agencies, World Bank |
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Controlling a pandemic during the fall and the winter is simply more difficult than during warmer months, when people can comfortably spend time outdoors. Experts long predicted that the later months of the year would be difficult in much of the world, and those predictions proved to be correct. |
In Europe, several big countries have gone through cycles of having more and less success controlling this virus: Cases rise, and countries respond with new restrictions that bring down caseloads — until they lift the restrictions, become careless and then watch cases rise again. That has happened lately in Britain, Germany and elsewhere, and they have responded by announcing new restrictions. |
The U.S. went through similar cycles in the spring and the summer. But since September, this country has failed to make another concerted effort to reduce infections. It’s worth emphasizing that the current U.S. problems were not inevitable. Just look at the lines in the chart above for Mexico and especially Canada, which has to cope with even colder weather. |
The second chart shows that the recent U.S. trends reflect a real increase in virus cases. It’s not a statistical mirage in which more widespread testing leads to a greater number of official cases. We know that because the share of tests that come back positive has surged: |
 | | By The New York Times | Sources: Covid Tracking Project |
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The final chart may be the most alarming: Deaths in the U.S. are almost certain to rise in the coming weeks — probably to more than 3,000 a day, which would be by far the highest level yet. |
 | | By The New York Times | Source: Hospitals and health agencies |
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I’ve shown you a version of this chart before. The basic idea is that if you track the number of new virus cases, you can fairly accurately predict the number of Covid-related deaths about three weeks later. Every 100 new cases in the U.S. has led to an average of roughly 1.6 deaths, with a 22-day lag. (Trevor Bedford, a scientist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, explains why in this Twitter thread.) |
The chart here suggests that the surge in cases during the first three weeks of December will lead to a surge in deaths during late December and early January. |
All of this points to the same conclusion. As encouraging as the vaccine news is, most Americans will not be vaccinated for at least another several months, leaving plenty of time for the virus to do damage. And absent a rapid change in the country’s approach, tens of thousands of more Americans will needlessly die. |
Some perspective, from my colleague Nicholas Kristof: By the end of March, one analysis suggests that the vaccines will have saved 25,000 lives in the U.S. More frequent usage of masks could save 56,000 lives. |
 | | Shopping at a grocery store in Philadelphia last month.Kriston Jae Bethel for The New York Times |
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- A federal advisory panel tried to strike a compromise on whether older Americans or essential workers should be next in line for a vaccine. The panel prioritized a smaller group of essential workers — including workers at grocery stores but not restaurant workers, for example — and only those Americans who are 75 or older.
- Countries across Europe and beyond barred travelers from Britain, citing concerns about a new variant of the virus that may spread more easily. The mutations do not appear to increase the virus’s lethality or resistance to vaccines, The Times’s Apoorva Mandavilli explains.
- The European Union’s drug authority will most likely approve Pfizer’s vaccine today, which will set off a logistical marathon of distributing shots to more than 400 million people in 27 countries.
- President-elect Joe Biden and the incoming first lady, Jill Biden, will receive the virus vaccine on live television today. Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will probably receive it after Christmas. All of them will receive the usual follow-up doses in later weeks.
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 | | Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, at the Capitol yesterday.Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times |
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- Congressional leaders reached a deal on a $900 billion economic stimulus bill. A vote is expected soon.
- The bill “has probably spared millions of Americans from a winter of poverty and kept the country from falling back into recession,” according to a Times analysis. And “it may provide a bridge to a vaccine-fueled rebound” next year.
- Central to the bill are one-time stimulus checks of $600 per person in households making up to $75,000. The bill is also expected to include an expansion of jobless benefits by up to $300 per week for 11 weeks and money for small businesses and schools. Here’s what it means for you.
- A late sticking point in the stimulus talks had been a Republican proposal to restrict the Federal Reserve’s ability to loan money to businesses. In the end, the bill will ban only a narrow set of such programs.
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- The police in New Jersey said that they had found the body of Cpl. Hayden Allen Harris, a missing Fort Drum soldier. The authorities said that they had arrested a fellow soldier in connection with the death.
- Senator John Barrasso, Republican of Wyoming, criticized Biden’s nominee for energy secretary, Jennifer Granholm, for supporting a transition away from fossil fuels. As the current chairman of the Senate environment committee, Barrasso may help oversee Granholm’s confirmation hearing.
- Neo-Nazis have burrowed into the ranks of German police departments. “We have a problem with far-right extremism,” said Herbert Reul, the interior minister of North-Rhine Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state. “If we don’t deal with it, it will grow.”
- With depression and anxiety rising during the pandemic, Chinese officials are scrambling to offset the country’s dearth of therapists by creating hotlines, online seminars and counseling centers. Mental health issues have long carried a stigma in China.
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 | | What’s left of the Metrocenter mall in Phoenix.Jesse Rieser for The New York Times |
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Winter Solstice: For thousands of years, during dark winters, humans have turned to rituals and stories to remind one another of hope and deeper truths. |
The Media Equation: The Times’s Ben Smith writes about a lawsuit by makers of voting machines that could sink right-wing media. |
From Opinion: A nurse who came out of retirement to fight the virus. A postmaster who laid the bricks of the building he managed. The Times’s Opinion section asked five people to tell the story of someone they lost to the pandemic. |
Lives Lived: Catie Lazarus quit a doctoral program in clinical psychology to try her hand at comedy, and gained a passionate following with a live show called “Employee of the Month.” She died at 44. |
 | | A hunter in Natchez, Miss., last month.Annie Flanagan for The New York Times |
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More people have turned to outdoor activities this year to keep themselves occupied. There have been booms in jogging, biking, camping — and hunting. |
As The Wall Street Journal writes, it’s an activity “seemingly designed for a pandemic: outdoors, thriving in small groups and featuring built-in social distancing.” Nationwide, sales of hunting licenses have increased by more than 12 percent this year. Sales of fishing licenses are also up by 14 percent. |
Hunting had been in decline for most of the past four decades, partly because older hunters were aging out of the activity and younger generations were turning toward school sports and indoor hobbies instead. |
Pandemic escapism isn’t the only cause. More Americans have become interested in locally sourced meats. And hunting tends to rise somewhat during recessions. |
“These are activities that people do when they have time and, unfortunately, a number of people are out of work,” the commissioner of the Vermont Fish & Wildlife Department told The White River Valley Herald. “We wish that weren’t the case, but it does result in time for people to hunt and fish.” |
 | | Christopher Testani for The New York Times |
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| | PICK UP THE KNITTING NEEDLES |
Mariah Carey, Dolly Parton, Carrie Underwood — there’s no shortage of Christmas musical specials helmed by stars this season. Which ones are worth watching? |
“Saturday Night Live” spoofed Vice President Mike Pence’s coronavirus vaccination. |
The pangram from Friday’s Spelling Bee was notably. Today’s puzzle is above — or you can play online if you have a Games subscription. |
Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David |
Today’s episode of “The Daily” is about the radio host Delilah. The latest Book Review podcast features Kerri Greenidge on two books about African-Americans in the years before the Civil War and Neal Gabler talking about his biography of Edward Kennedy. |
Lalena Fisher, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick and Sanam Yar contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com. |
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